France votes, Macron battles for Parl majority

Paris, June 12

French voters cast their ballots on Sunday in the first of the two rounds that will decide whether President Emmanuel Macron gets a working majority in Parliament or ends up without the support needed to drive through his reform agenda.

La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Melenchon casts his vote at a polling station in Marseille

2 rounds

289 seats needed for absolute majority

577 National Assembly’s seats

6,293 candidates

20 parties in contest

Each deputy is elected in a constituency, of which Metropolitan France (the area of the country that is geographically in Europe) has 539 and the overseas territories 27
11 deputies will represent the French nationals living abroad
A candidate requires over 50% of the day’s vote to be elected outright on June 12
Failing, the top two contenders, alongside anyone who won more than 12.5% of the registered vote, go forward to a second round

What’s Macron got to lose?

If Macron’s coalition, Ensemble, keeps control, the President will be able to carry out his agenda, which includes tax cuts, welfare reform and raising the retirement age
A government with a large but not absolute majority will still be able to rule, but only by bargaining with MPs
Macron and his allies are expected to win between 260 and 320 seats, according to latest polls
Macron will have substantial powers over foreign policy whatever the outcome of this election

Less than two months after re-election, Macron faces a strong challenge from a united left-wing bloc that polls show could deprive the President of an outright majority even if it does not take control of Parliament.

Government insiders expect a relatively poor showing in Sunday’s first round for Macron’s coalition “Ensemble”, with record numbers of voters seen abstaining. Hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon’s bloc hopes to capitalise on anger over the rising cost of living.

“I voted for hope… so not for our current President,” said Michel Giboz, 71, after voting for Melechon’s NUPES bloc at the poll station located in the 18th Parisian district’s town hall.

At risk is Macron’s ability to pass his reform agenda, including a pension reform he says is essential to restore public finances. His opponents on the left are pushing to cut the pension age and launch a big spending drive.

“We expect a difficult first round. Voters will want to send a signal,” government sources said. “But we’re counting on the second round to show that Melenchon’s programme is fantasy.”

Initial projections after the presidential election showed Macron was on course to get a majority in Parliament. But the President has kept a low profile since the vote, taking two weeks to form a government and only rarely making appearances.

Meanwhile, Melenchon has successfully forged an alliance between his France Unbowed movement, the Socialists and the Greens. Projections now show Macron and his allies, including the new party of his former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, could fall short of a majority of 289 by as many as 40 seats. Some 14 of Macron’s ministers are competing in local races and could lose their jobs if they fail to win a seat. One cabinet member most at risk is Clement Beaune, Macron’s Europe minister, who is campaigning in an eastern Paris constituency. —Reuters