What hardliner Ebrahim Raisi’s victory in Iran elections means for the rest of the world

When Iranians elect a new leader, the world watches. So the election of Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline right-winger, to replace the more centrist Hassan Rouhani, is global news of some significance.

Raisi is the choice of Iran’s socially arch-conservative and politically anti-reformist “deep state”. This ideological core of the state includes the powerful Islamic Revolution Guard Corps and the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who hovers at the centre of an intricate political system.

Raisi would also not have been voted into office without the disqualification of competing candidates by the Guardian Council, which vets candidates for their political and religious credentials. As a result of this skewed process, only two rather lacklustre “reformists” were left standing.

In this election, in particular, the spectrum of choice was seriously narrowed, which benefited Raisi and the conservative camp. In the 2017 election, Raisi lost to the rather more pragmatic Rouhani by quite a decisive margin.

Having said that, Raisi has now convinced 17.9 million Iranians that he is the right candidate. But the turnout, at 28.9 million, or 48.8% of the electorate, was the lowest for any elections held since the Islamic Republic was formed after the revolution in 1979.

This is due to two factors. The first is a real disillusionment with the Rouhani administration and the left-of-centre (or reformist) politicians…

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