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Monsoon: No rains in northwest India till July 7-8
Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, June 28
With the northern limit of the southwest monsoon (NLM) stuck at its position for more than 10 days now, the Indian Meteorological Department said on Tuesday the seasonal rains are not expected to progress into Delhi, Chandigarh, Haryana, and southern parts of Punjab for another 6-7 days. Rather, some independent forecasters believe the monsoon may continue to give the hitherto uncovered parts of the Northwest a miss till around July 10.
Why it matters
The NLM continues to pass through Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar
India receives about 70% of its annual rain during the four-month season
Seasonal rains are crucial for crops like rice, cotton, and soybean
Around two-thirds of India’s agricultural tracts depend upon monsoon
According to Mahesh Palawat of Skymet, from Monday/Tuesday the monsoon axis is also shifting towards foothills, further leading the seasonal rains into perhaps the “longest break spell” at this time of the year. It also means that parts of central India that have been covered may also not receive rains it revives again.
“Though it has happened earlier, such a long break at this time of the year is unusual. There’s no indication of rains (in Northwest) till July 7/8,” says Palawat.
The IMD also adds that prevailing meteorological conditions, large scale atmospheric features, and the forecast wind pattern by dynamical models suggest that no favourable conditions are likely to develop for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, and Punjab during next 6-shy;7 days.
The main reason, rather the hindering factor, appears to be the prevalence of westerlies over the region, which again is “unusual” as according to Palawat by this time they generally shift into upper latitudes.
“Upper-level westerlies have been persisting since June 17/18, which is unusual as generally during this time of the year they shift more north,” he says.
Notably, the IMD around July 11 said that rains will reach Delhi by June 15, which is 12 days before its usual date of June 27. Last year also the wind system had covered the entire country by June 29, seven days before the usual date of July 8.
“The monsoon was really progressing well till then. Rather the low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal was expected to further boost the current, which did not happen,” meteorologists say.